The Truth Behind High Voter Turnout and Its Impact on Republican Elections

Introduction to Voter Turnout and Its Implications

Understanding Low Voter Turnout and Its Impact

Often discussed is the low voter turnout from specific demographics, such as young voters, people of color, and poor voters. These groups predominantly vote in favor of the Democratic Party. According to data from many election results, if fewer of your opponents' voters turn up at the polls, you inherently benefit from their absence. This conventional wisdom has long been held, primarily by the Republican Party, that high voter turnout is detrimental to their political goals.

Challenging the Myth: The 2020 Election

However, the conventional wisdom has been proven false by the 2020 election. In 2020, voter turnout reached unprecedented levels, but the Democrats did not perform as well as expected. Despite defeating former President Trump, they failed to retake the Senate and lost ground in the House and state legislatures. This outcome directly challenges the notion that high voter turnout is inherently beneficial for Democrats.

Examples and Evidence Against the Myth

2020 Election Data Analysis

As reported by David Leonard from The New York Times on December 23, 2021:

“In 2020, turnout soared yet Democrats did worse than expected. Yes they defeated Trump but they failed to retake the Senate for now and lost ground in the House and in state legislatures.”

Analyzing Iowa

In Iowa, a state with a record-breaking voter turnout of 76% of eligible voters, Republicans swept all races, including the re-election of Joni Ernst to the U.S. Senate and the flipping of two U.S. House seats. This occurred without any major problems or fraud being reported. A similar trend was observed nationwide, as Republicans defied expectations and gained House seats while retaining control of statehouses across the country.

Scientific Studies Supporting the Undermined Myths

Political scientists Daron Shaw and John Petrocik in their book, The Turnout Myth, debunk the idea that a low turnout benefits Democrats. They illustrate how in 2006, Democrats performed well in a low-turnout vote, but four years later in a high-turnout election, they were decisively defeated. Similarly, despite the increase in turnout from 2000 to 2004, Republicans performed better at every level.

High Turnout Does Not Favor Democrats

Chris Stirewalt, in his article in Commentary titled “Republicans Stop Believing Your Own Election Myth,” provides examples to support the claim that high turnout does not favor Democrats. He notes that both parties attribute President Biden’s victory to increased turnout, but this may be false. In 2020, numerous studies and analyses have shown that mail-in voting did not drive the turnout surge nor provide significant partisan advantages.

Impact on Suburban Voters

Another myth that was tarnished in 2020 is that Democrats have a lock on the urban vote. The Washington Post reported that Trump wasn't just a rural phenomenon. Most of his supporters came from cities and suburbs. Rural America only saw Trump win 42.1% of their votes, whereas he had urban majorities in 21 states.

Conclusion and Analysis

No Political Bias Here

This analysis is conducted without any political bias. I am an Independent, both in my registration as a voter and philosophically. It's clear that the evidence refutes the myth that high voter turnout benefits Democrats. In 2020, despite the record-high turnout, Democrats did not perform as well as expected. The nudge to moderate voters in swing states and not mail-in voting alone were the driving factors behind President Biden's victory.

Final Thoughts

Republicans should no longer fear that a more diverse country benefits Democrats. As evidenced by the 2020 election, Republicans performed well in numerous races, suggesting that the success of the Republican Party is not solely dependent on low turnout among specific demographics. Instead, the focus should be on expanding voter registration and engagement to ensure fair and competitive elections that reflect the will of the people.