How Will the Voter Turnout Affect the 2020 Election Outcomes?

In most years, a high voter turnout is considered to be a significant advantage for the Democratic Party. However, the 2020 election presents unique challenges due to recent societal events, particularly the riots in major urban centers. This article explores how voter turnout might influence the election outcomes for Democrats and Republicans, focusing on the role of cities and urban unrest.

The Riots and Urban Centers

Urban centers, traditionally strongholds for Democrats, have faced significant unrest over the past year. Many Democratic mayors withheld support from the police in efforts to quell protests, fearing that involvement would be perceived as racially biased. The resulting riots caused extensive damage to businesses, stores, and homes in these densely populated areas. For many residents, the stability and safety of their neighborhoods are paramount. When grocery stores, restaurants, and other essential businesses were looted and destroyed, the economic and social impact was profound.

A Nationwide Impact

The riots affected countless ordinary Americans, regardless of their ethnic or racial background. These events underscore the importance of community and safety. The lack of support from Democratic leaders to restore order and address these issues led to a significant shift in public opinion. Urban residents, who would typically vote for Democrats, have expressed frustration and may decide to vote differently in this election. This change in voting behavior could have substantial consequences for the Democratic Party's electoral success.

Historical Trends and Voter Preferences

The general consensus is that higher voter turnout generally benefits the Democratic Party, whose strongholds are often found in urban and suburban areas. Conversely, Republicans tend to perform better with lower turnout, typically in rural and conservative areas. This trend is rooted in the urban-suburban-rural makeup of most states, where Democrats often hold a numerical advantage.

Swing States and Key Factors

States like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were crucial in determining the outcome of the 2016 election. Donald Trump won these swing states by a narrow margin of just 100,000 votes, while the combined population of these states was around 28.3 million as reported by the 2010 U.S. Census Bureau. In 2020, higher voter turnout could potentially offset these narrow margins, especially if a significant number of Republican-leaning voters choose to support the Democrats.

Monitoring Voter Turnout

As the election approaches, voter turnout will be closely monitored, particularly in swing states. Polling data and early voting results will provide crucial insights into which party is gaining traction. Given the current close race, every percentage point could make a significant difference.

Conclusion

The 2020 election presents a complex landscape influenced by urban unrest and changing voter preferences. While historical trends suggest a higher voter turnout generally benefits Democrats, the specific circumstances of the 2020 election may lead to unexpected outcomes. Urban residents who typically support Democrats might now vote differently due to their dissatisfaction with the handling of protests and riots in their communities. As the election approaches, watch for critical data points and shifts in voter behavior to better understand which party stands to benefit the most.