What is Happening in Russia: The War in Ukraine

The Russian military incursion into Ukraine, despite its extensive propaganda efforts, has proven to be a costly and fruitless endeavor. Hundreds of Russian conscripts have died in Ukraine, and thousands have surrendered to Ukrainian forces. This retreat back towards the Russian border has revealed the futility of Putin's attempt to rebuild a Russian Empire.

The Strategic Failure in Sevastopol

This morning, Putin's efforts to salvage any remaining glory were met with a devastating attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet and the strategic Sevastopol Shipyard. This move, coupled with his appeal to North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, highlights the desperation of the Russian leadership.

The attack on the Black Sea Fleet and Sevastopol Shipyard was a significant blow to Russia's naval capabilities and strategic military posture in the region. This action underscores the rapid decline of Russian military effectiveness and the growing resistance from Ukrainian forces.

Prospects for 2023

With no tangible benefits for Russian civilians, the war in Ukraine continues to erode quality of life and freedoms, even for the wealthiest individuals. The military incursion has not improved the well-being of Russian citizens; instead, it has cost them significant quality of life, opportunity, and even their lives.

Imminent Military Action and Negotiation

The situation on the ground remains tense. A successful counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces could compel Putin to negotiate. Historically, the Russian military has made critical errors, as demonstrated by the failure to effectively support Stalingrad in 1942, which allowed the Germans to pour nearly half of their forces into the city before the Nazi offensive was quashed.

Ukrainian forces have demonstrated tenacity in their defense of Bakhmut, indicating a possible shift in the battlefield dynamics. If Ukraine can successfully surround and destroy a large portion of the Russian army in the northeast, it may force Putin to reconsider his stance and seek peace.

Future Prospects and Predictions

Looking ahead to 2023, it is likely that the situation in Russia will remain largely stagnant. Several new regions may join Russia, but Ukraine's territory is expected to significantly reduce. The West may continue to impose more sanctions, to which Russia might respond by providing humanitarian aid to the EU.

Politically, there could be continued discussions about forming new unions that exclude the "traitorous" West, potentially leading to the emergence of organizations like BRICKS with the possibility of adding a ' ' to its name to denote expansion.

Domestically, the older generation of politicians may continue to enforce stricter measures and restrictions, despite a lack of enforcement power. The prestige of construction-related professions is likely to rise as Russia embarks on a massive reconstruction effort in former Ukrainian territories. This might also improve the perception of migrant laborers, who often contribute to the construction sector.

The mobilization of soldiers towards the end of the year may lead to a celebratory atmosphere among returning veterans, marking a period of relief and pride for many families.

The war in Ukraine is not just a military conflict but also a profound economic crisis for Russia, with no clear end in sight.