EU Expansion: The Reality and Prospects

Within the context of geopolitical and economic discussions, the European Union (EU) is often misunderstood when it comes to its expansion plans. Recent geopolitical events, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have once again brought the topic of EU expansion to the forefront. However, the EU's expansion is not as simple as 'invading' another country, but rather a diligent, multi-decade process.

EU Expansion and the Conflict with Russia

It is important to clarify that the EU is not planning to "invade" any country, not even Russia. The organization is not a nation but a cooperative framework of 27 sovereign states that work together to achieve common goals. While the conflict with Russia has certainly highlighted the importance of a strong, unified Europe, it does not imply an immediate expansion of the EU.

Current Status of EU Expansion

The EU does not actively invite or promote its membership, nor does it advertise itself to potential candidates. The decision to expand is a slow and deliberate process that involves applying countries meeting strict criteria set by the EU. As of now, there are eight countries seeking EU membership:

Turkey (since 1999) North Macedonia (since 2005) Montenegro (since 2010) Serbia (since 2012) Albania (since 2014) Moldova (since 2022) Ukraine (since 2022) Bosnia and Herzegovina (since 2022) Georgia (formally submitted applications in 2022)

These countries must work closely with the EU over several years to meet the necessary conditions before an application is even considered. The process can take decades, and even then, there is no guarantee of membership. The current political climate has indeed shown that the EU is a powerful and influential entity, which could potentially strengthen the applicants' resolve to join.

Why Does the EU Expand?

The EU is not driven by a desire to simply increase its membership numbers. Rather, it seeks to admit countries that can contribute to the organization's goals of promoting democratic values, economic stability, and security. Membership is seen as highly advantageous, and as a result, many countries are keen to join.

The Role of the Lisbon Treaty

Under Article 49 of the Lisbon Treaty, membership in the EU is open to any European state that commits to respect and promote the democratic values outlined in Article 2 of the treaty. These values include respect for human rights, democracy, and the rule of law. This article, combined with the requirement to adhere to EU rules and regulations, ensures that the expansion of the EU is done responsibly and with careful consideration.

Current Members and the Future of the EU

Currently, only three European countries are not part of the EU and/or the European Economic Area (EEA), which includes the Single Market: Russia, Belarus, and the United Kingdom (apart from Northern Ireland, which remains part of the Single Market).

While the UK has already left the EU, the potential for future expansion remains. The recent conflict with Russia has highlighted the importance of a unified Europe. Putin's actions have shown that the EU is a strong and financially powerful opponent, capable of standing against such aggression.

It is clear that the EU's expansion is not driven by a desire to merely increase its numbers, but by a commitment to maintaining democratic values, stability, and security across Europe. As such, the ongoing process of expansion is a testament to the organisation's dedication to its values and the future of Europe.