Can a No-Confidence Motion Oust India's PM Narendra Modi?

No-confidence motions are common practices in democratic nations, serving as a check on the executive branch. However, the recent ouster of Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan highlights potential challenges that democracies can face. India, with its own history of no-confidence motions, seems immune to such moves against its current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. This article explores the likelihood of a no-confidence motion affecting Modi's tenure, drawing parallels and differences with the Pakistani scenario.

Democracy at Work: The Case of Imran Khan

The ouster of Imran Khan from his leadership position in Pakistan resonates profoundly with the essence of democracy. When a government loses a no-confidence motion, it signifies the will of the majority in the parliament. Imran Khan's party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), did not command a majority in Parliament. This led to his removal and paved the way for a new administration. Khan's attempts to manipulate the situation by attempting to dismantle the state infrastructure and deny election results if his party loses underscored his pathological obsession with power.

A Historical Perspective on No-Confidence Motions in India

India's history illustrates that no-confidence motions have been a part of the democratic process. In 1997, Deve Gowda faced a no-confidence motion and was defeated. Similarly, in 1999, Atal Bihari Vajpayee was on the receiving end of a no-confidence motion but narrowly survived with just one vote. These instances highlight that while possible, a no-confidence motion against the ruling government is not a straightforward path.

The Current Landscape: Narendra Modi's Strong Support Base

At the present, there is no credible scenario where a no-confidence motion against Modi would succeed. Modi heads the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a party that holds a decisive majority in the Lok Sabha (the lower house). This situation is fundamentally different from the Pakistani scenario where multiple parties form a coalition. With the full support of his party, Modi retains substantial power and control. Looking ahead to the 2024 elections, the BJP is expected to secure a clear majority, ensuring political stability and continuity.

Past Examples and Future Predictions

The 2018 no-confidence motion against Modi provides a relevant precedent. On 20th July 2018, at 11:09 PM, the no-confidence motion was convincingly defeated by a vote of 325 to 126. Out of 451 members voting, there were no abstentions. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which had 314 MPs, secured the remaining 11 votes.

These historical and current dynamics underscore the fundamental differences between Pakistan and India in the context of no-confidence motions. While the Pakistani experience demonstrates the eventual overthrow of a leader through democratic processes, the Indian scenario shows the resilience of a strong parliamentary majority and political party support.

Conclusion

It is improbable that a no-confidence motion would oust India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Indian political landscape, characterized by a strong majority for the BJP and the continued support of its leadership, makes such a motion a non-starter. Drawing parallels from historical precedents, it is clear that Modi's tenure will likely continue without any significant political disruptions.