Why High-Speed Trains from Miami to San Diego via Phoenix and Washington DC are Not Economically Feasible

The question of whether there is high-speed train service from Miami to San Diego, via Phoenix and Washington DC, arises from a confluence of demand, cost, and infrastructure challenges. Despite the allure of high-speed rail, multiple factors indicate that such a route would not be economically viable.

The Challenge of Demand and Profitability

The feasibility of a high-speed rail route is almost entirely dependent on the amount of passenger and freight demand it can expect to generate. Unlike air travel, which offers fast, direct routes and relatively affordable tickets, high-speed rail faces significant challenges in justifying the substantial capital investment required.

In the United States, the availability of air travel, even at budgetary prices, remains a primary competitor. A preliminary look into the demand for such a high-speed rail service reveals that the interest is not high enough to drive profitability.

Historical Context and Lessons Learned

During the period following World War II, a similar challenge was present when German engineers were transported from New York to Houston. The time it took (3 days) highlighted the vastness of the United States but also underscored how long-distance transport could be accomplished using rail. However, this historical context is different from the modern-day scenario where technology and infrastructure have vastly improved.

The lesson from history is that distance pales in comparison to the cost of rail infrastructure. Even regions with substantial demand, such as the proposed route from Washington DC to San Francisco via Kansas City, have struggled. The California High-Speed Rail project is a prime example, where initial estimates of $33 billion skyrocketed to over $100 billion, highlighting the challenges in realizing such ambitious projects.

Economic Analysis and Price Considerations

Let’s look at the numbers in more detail. To build a high-speed rail line from Miami to San Diego, especially considering the need to acquire land and construct necessary infrastructure like tunnels and bridges, the cost estimation ranges from $800 billion to $1 trillion in today’s dollars.

Even if a private company took on the project and had 50 years to recoup the costs, they would need to generate $16 billion annually—equivalent to $2200 per passenger per year—just to cover the initial investment. This does not factor in operational costs, including the acquisition and maintenance of train fleets, fuel, and personnel salaries. In reality, the ticket prices would be even higher, likely pushing them beyond what the average consumer is willing to pay, especially when compared to air travel.

Comparison with Air Travel

A first-class flight from Miami to San Diego would cost approximately $1700, and the trip would take about 5 to 6 hours. An economy class flight could cost as little as $200. In contrast, a high-speed train would take multiple days and the cost per passenger would be significantly higher, making it non-competitive for a private entity.

The high-speed rail project would only make sense if the demand for such a service were massive enough to drive a high ticket price and frequent passenger traffic. However, the current reality is that the demand for such a route is not only low but also likely to be insufficient to justify the massive investment required.

Moreover, governments might consider such projects due to their potential for economic development and environmental benefits, but they often face the same financial hurdles as private companies. Given the extensive costs and the lack of substantial demand, it is unlikely that a purely private entity would undertake such a venture.

In conclusion, while the concept of high-speed rail is appealing, the current economic realities and demand patterns suggest that a high-speed train from Miami to San Diego, via Phoenix and Washington DC, is not economically feasible. Air travel remains the most viable and cost-effective option for long-distance travel in the United States.