Introduction

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been a complex geopolitical issue, with various strategies and military plans being discussed and implemented. Both nations have been influenced by historical and strategic principles, including those laid out by the famous Prussian military theorist, Carl von Clausewitz. This article will explore the current strategy of Russia in Ukraine and how it aligns with Clausewitz's principles of war.

Russia's Approach

Russia's strategy in Ukraine has been marked by a calculated and measured approach, rather than an immediate full-scale invasion. The actions taken by Russia, such as the creation of a so-called 'sanitary corridor,' have been designed to achieve specific military and political objectives. The recent extension of the GMLRS M30/31 range has allowed Russia to widen its control over strategic regions, effectively creating a buffer zone that could support a larger-scale offensive in the future.

Clausewitz's Principles and the War of Attrition

Carl von Clausewitz, a key figure in military strategy, has provided a framework for understanding the conduct of war through his seminal work, "On War" (Vom Kriege). Clausewitz emphasizes the importance of attrition in warfare, where the goal is to weaken the enemy's military capabilities and will to fight. Russia's strategy in Ukraine aligns with this principle in several ways:

Gradual Buildup: Russia has been gradually increasing its military presence and pressure on Ukrainian forces, rather than launching a full-scale invasion. This approach allows for a sustained attrition campaign against Ukrainian military and reserves.

Breaking the Enemy's Will: Clausewitz notes that once an enemy's resistance has been significantly weakened, the offensive can be intensified. Russia has employed tactics that aim to demoralize and exhaust Ukrainian forces, making them less capable of resisting further attacks.

Unified Front: According to Clausewitz, a successful war of attrition requires coordination across all fronts. Russia has been employing multiple tactics and fronts to wear down Ukrainian defenses and forces.

Potential Next Steps

Based on Clausewitz's principles, Russia is likely to intensify its offensive operations. The author of this article Danvers suggests that Russia is nearing a crucial point where it can take the next steps in breaking Ukrainian resistance. The Russian army, having already midfield the Ukrainian army, is now poised to launch coordinated attacks across the entire front line.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's current strategy can be seen as a calculated risk. If history were to repeat, Putin would have undoubtedly chosen a much more strategic and planned invasion at a different time. The complex variables, including Ukrainian resistance and international support, severely underestimated by Putin, would have been better addressed with a more prepared and cohesive plan.

Conclusion

The military and political landscape in Ukraine continues to evolve, with Russia following a strategy that aligns closely with Clausewitz's principles of war. The gradual attrition campaign, the attempts to break the enemy's will, and the coordination across multiple fronts demonstrate the application of these historical military strategies in modern conflict. As the conflict continues, it will be essential to monitor these strategic approaches and their impacts on both the military and political outcomes in the region.