Will Brexit Reduce Tourism in Either Direction?

The upcoming Brexit standstill is likely to have significant impacts on the travel landscape, particularly in terms of ease of travel and visa policies. This article will explore how Brexit might affect tourism flows between the UK and other nations, as well as the broader travel industry.

Initial Uncertainty and Physical Delays

As travel becomes more complicated with potential customs checks and border adjustments, both British and international tourists might reconsider their travel plans. During the initial years following Brexit, there could be considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty will undoubtedly affect who decides to take a holiday, particularly as travelers might fear that returning home could be a challenge due to potential delays and complexities in immigration processes.

Financial Considerations: Exchange Rates and Living Standards

The exchange rate fluctuations that post-Brexit UK faces are expected to significantly impact travel costs for Britons. With the pound likely to weaken against major currencies, trips to Europe and other popular destinations may become more expensive, deterring some from choosing these locations for their vacations. Additionally, the lower living standards in the UK post-Brexit mean that the country might no longer be an attractive destination for tourists seeking value for money.

Recessionary Trends: Increased Movie Attendance and Shift in Tourism Patterns?

Historically, during economic downturns, people tend to cut back on expensive leisure activities such as theme park trips or overseas vacations. Instead, there is often an increase in movie attendance as it represents a more affordable form of entertainment. While this trend may reduce some travel spending, it could also lead to an increase in domestic tourism as people look for more accessible and affordable options.

Moreover, for those who can no longer afford to travel to more distant destinations like the US, Thailand, or Australia, the cost-effectiveness of traveling to Europe could attract these travelers. Consequently, Brexit might not lead to a significant decrease in overall tourism but could shift the travel patterns towards closer European destinations.

Global Impact and Trends in Tourism Spending

Britons spend approximately 37 billion annually on visiting European destinations and the global tourism industry spends around 45.5 billion. These figures suggest that Brexit is unlikely to dramatically alter these spending patterns. In 2018, the UK saw approximately 37.9 million tourists, contributing about 319 billion to the global tourism economy. Despite a 2018 decrease in tourist numbers, the weakening of the GBP has the potential to boost future travel to the UK.

Tourism inherently fluctuates based on economic conditions and exchange rates. Despite Brexit, the tourism industry is resilient and capable of adjusting. Visitor numbers are likely to continue to depend on economic factors, including exchange rates, which have historically influenced travel decisions. This resilience suggests that while there might be initial turbulence, tourism is likely to adapt and recover.

In conclusion, while Brexit presents challenges to the ease and affordability of travel, the long-term impact on tourism may not be as severe as some might predict. The tourism industry, while facing challenges, is still highly adaptable, and changes in travel patterns may simply shift toward more affordable and closer European destinations.